Opportunity radar

Where the pressure is.

Every problem we work on starts with evidence. These are the numbers we watch, from Artive Capital’s public data, and the question each one raises for the lab.

Updated 8 October 2026

  • Household food basketR5,488

    +2.0% in a year (September 2026). A full month on the national minimum wage is R5,079.

    The question we’re askingCan small shops and buying groups buy together to take cost out of the basket, rather than pass it on?

    See the data: PMBEJD, via Artive Capital
  • Foods moving mostOnions 10kg +66.2%

    Up: Onions 10kg +66.2%, Potatoes 10kg +33.6%, Bananas 4kg +22.8%. Down: Oranges 7kg -18.3%, Sugar beans 5kg -14.5%, Maize meal 30kg -11.5%.

    The question we’re askingCould a simple price feed help small retailers reprice and restock faster when single items swing this hard?

    See the data: PMBEJD, via Artive Capital
  • Fuel, a year onPetrol +39.9%

    95 inland R30.25 a litre in October 2026; diesel R31.95 (+65.2%).

    The question we’re askingWhat does dearer fuel do to the cost of last-mile delivery, and who can share routes and vehicles to bring it down?

    See the data: Official prices (AA), via Artive Capital
  • Inflation (CPI)4.4%

    For Aug, from 4.5% three releases earlier.

    The question we’re askingWhich categories are shoppers trading down in, and can stores see it in their own sales before the official number?

    See the data: Stats SA, via Artive Capital
  • Retail sales+3.4%

    Year on year, for Jul, against +1.3% three releases earlier.

    The question we’re askingWhen sales grow, who wins the extra rand: the big chains, or the shops with better data on their own customers?

    See the data: Stats SA, via Artive Capital
  • Consumer confidence-13

    Q3, from -19 the quarter before. Below zero means more pessimists than optimists.

    The question we’re askingWith shoppers cautious, which formats win: smaller packs, pay-later, or buying in groups over chat?

    See the data: FNB/BER, via Artive Capital
  • Private sector credit+7.5%

    Year on year, for Aug, against +8.6% three releases earlier.

    The question we’re askingAs credit slows, is there room for fairer ways to pay over time at the till, online and in chat?

    See the data: SARB, via Artive Capital
  • Repo and prime7.25%

    Repo rate, with prime at 10.75%. Every move changes what shoppers pay on accounts and loans.

    The question we’re askingCan checkout show shoppers the true cost of paying later before they choose it?

    See the data: SARB, via Artive Capital
  • Unemployment33.6%

    For Q2, from 32.7% the quarter before.

    The question we’re askingCan selling over chat and social become real income for people outside formal jobs, with stock, payments and delivery handled?

    See the data: Stats SA, via Artive Capital
  • Where the market is rewarding commerceWhere we shop +14.8%

    The average one-year share price move by segment: strongest Where we shop +14.8%, Moving goods +9.6%, Eating out +7.1%; weakest Health & beauty -30.1%, Platforms -46.4%.

    The question we’re askingWhat is the market telling us about which kinds of commerce are getting stronger, and which need new ideas?

    See the data: Delayed JSE prices, via Artive Capital
  • Where the listed retailers areGauteng: 1,734 shops

    Mapped shops of the JSE-listed retailers by province, Gauteng 1,734, Western Cape 925, KwaZulu-Natal 652, Eastern Cape 445, Mpumalanga 219, Limpopo 213, North West 208, Free State 206, Northern Cape 72. Mapped shops, not official store counts.

    The question we’re askingWhere the big chains are thin on the ground, who supplies the shops that serve those areas, and how well?

    See the data: OpenStreetMap, via Artive Capital

How Ventures uses Capital’s data

  1. 01

    Artive Capital publishes its research on capital.artive.co.za. Ventures reads the same public pages anyone can.

  2. 02

    Capital’s own trading and investment decisions never come across. The group keeps that wall in place.

  3. 03

    A signal is a reason to ask a question, not an answer. Every venture still has to pass the four gates, starting with real merchants who feel the problem.

QuestionsGood to know.

  • From Artive Capital’s public research pages, which draw on Stats SA, the Reserve Bank, the PMBEJD food basket, official fuel prices, delayed JSE prices and OpenStreetMap. Each signal links to its source page.

  • No. Ventures reads Capital’s published data, the same pages anyone can. Capital’s trading views and decisions stay on its side of the wall.

  • Yes. Pitch us with the focus area it fits, or tell us about a problem you see that the numbers don’t show yet.

Got a commerce problem worth a company? We want to hear it.

A few lines is enough: the problem, who has it and why now.

Pitch us